Title: How U.S. Pre-election Polls are Changing in an Era of Disruption and Scrutiny
Date/Time: Wednesday, November 14, 2018 4:00–5:30 p.m.
Informal reception to follow at approximately 5:45 p.m. at East Street Café on the mezzanine level of Union Station.
Speaker: Scott Clement, Polling Director, The Washington Post
Chair: Sareeta Carter Schmitt, AP Statistics teacher, The School Without Walls of Washington, DC
Sponsors: WSS Statistics Education Committee, WSS Methodology Section and DC-AAPOR (The Washington-Baltimore Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research)
Location: Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet Norwood Conference Center, Rooms 7/8 (Please check board in case of change of room). BLS is located at 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE. Use the Red Line to Union Station. Parking in the area of BLS is available at Union Station. For parking information see http://www.unionstationdc.com/parking. No validation is available from BLS for reduced parking rates.
RSVP: To be placed on the seminar attendance list at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, you need to e-mail your name, affiliation, date of the seminar and seminar name to firstname.lastname@example.org (underscore after ‘wss’) by noon on Friday, November 9. Please bring a photo ID to the seminar.
Abstract: The past decade has brought a rapid proliferation in U.S. pre-election polls, ways they are conducted and approaches to combining and interpreting results. This change has also come amid heightened scrutiny of the accuracy of pre-election polls and efforts to use polls to provide precise forecasts of election results, which came to a head with Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the 2016 election. A report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research found national polls that year were particularly accurate by historical standards, but that state surveys significantly underestimated Trump’s support. This talk will discuss the driving forces behind changes in pre-election polling, the chief challenges for pollsters and the news media in conducting and interpreting polls in the coming years. The talk is non-technical and relevant for both statisticians and non-statisticians.
No Remote Access Will be Available for this Event
POC (Point of Contact) email: Carol Joyce Blumberg, email@example.com